Lorestead of Brunswyk Press / Center for Erasian Politics
An Electoral Process Like No Other: Charting the Nagumese Presidential Election
by
Albert Langham and
Guinevere Hsiaou, from the Lorestead of Brunswyk, Sutherland
Published January 14, 2025
When trying to answer the question of who will, definitively, succeed Han Bianxi as the next President of Nagumay, the most intellectually honest answer would simply be, “We can't say for sure,” due to the highly byzantine and complex system behind the election of a President, which takes months to complete. The election of Han Bianxi, for example, came as a shock to most domestic and international observers of the Nagumese electoral process. An analysis written by the IAP in the run-up to the 2021 election, for example, stated, "The three leading candidates to succeed Acting President Ouyang Kand as President during this tense period in Nagumay are Hong Shi, Míng Chángmíng, and Rui Baozhai."
Since the 1990 Constitution, the President of Nagumay has been elected by the Nagumese National Congress, a body composed of the Nagumay Grand Convention and the National People’s Council. The Nagumay Grand Convention, composed of 3,495 delegates, is a temporary body indirectly elected by the Fùhuó Party Electorate which convenes for the sole purpose of aiding in the election of a President, while the National People’s Council, composed of 504 councilors, is the legislative arm of the Nagumese Government.
Unlike most electoral systems in which voters are able to cast a single, private ballot, electors participate in what is referred to as the ‘Parley System,’ marked by a lengthy process of public-facing electoral allocation. In each Local District, there is an in-person Local District Convention held, which generally takes place within a municipal hall or other appropriate venue, such as a school.
At each site, convention-goers will physically separate into different areas to congregate based upon the Electoral Slate which they support. The number of convention-goers supporting each Electoral Slate will then be tallied up by a party official. If an Electoral Slate fails to reach the viability threshold, defined as 20% support amongst the convention-goers, the slate will be dissolved and its supporters may re-allocate their support to another Electoral Slate. However, a dissolved Slate can be re-formed if enough supporters of other dissolved Slates seek to coalesce behind a singular Slate to pull themselves across the viability threshold.
Following the elimination of non-viable Slates, the second round of the Parley commences, lasting anywhere between thirty minutes to an hour, in which Slate Captains will seek to sway convention-goers to back their Slate prior to the final tally being conducted. At the end of the second round, each Slate is granted the ability to appoint an amount of delegates proportional to the percentage of support they received at the convention site to the Prefectural Convention.
The Prefectural Convention replicates the same process undertaken at the Local District Convention, but at the Prefectural level, where in turn, it will name delegates to the Provincial Convention, which names delegates to the Nagumay Grand Convention to take part in the actual election of the Nagumese President.
At the Nagumese National Congress, both Convention Delegates and Councilors will meet to select the next President. Prior to 2021, a candidate for President was required to accrue a simple majority of votes cast in order to be elected. However, this threshold has recently been raised to a 3/5ths (60%) requirement as part of recent reforms undertaken by the Han administration. Additionally, while Councilors were forbidden from voting on the first ballot, only allowed to vote in succeeding rounds, this restriction has since been lifted.
Simplified chart explaining the Governing Structure of Nagumay. Certain elements excluded for brevity and understanding. Read more here: The Nagumese Government, De-mystified
In the 2021 Nagumese Presidential Election, held amidst the fallout of the 2020-21 Leadership Controversy and 2021 Nagumese Protests, Han Bianxi, then-Chairman of the Yuheng Fùhuó Party, won an upset victory, becoming Nagumay's 20th President. While there was no prohibitive frontrunner throughout the process, Hong Shi was viewed as the most likely candidate to win by most political handicappers and analysts. The Angkang People's University Straw Poll reported Hong Shi as the dominant candidate by far, at roughly 24% support. Míng Chángmíng polled at 13%, Rui Baozhai polled at 7%. Han Bianxi found himself at sixth place, with only three percent. Per most international observers, a large reason behind Han's upset victory stemmed from the fact that Han supporters were able to exert a substantial influence on the delegate race by mastering Nagumay's many arcane election rules alongside winning key positions on various provincial and prefectural election committees.
The recent reforms enacted under Han Bianxi, most controversially, his push for 'Qualified System Democracy,' which notably expanded the tiered balloting system and weighed the PSU system, most certainly will "reshape [the] 2025 electorate into something unrecognizable [compared to 2021]," per Alexander Shangguan, an analyst and commentator on Aurorian geopolitics.
The result, he said, is an “ossification of the Tianxia System” which will “strengthen the political power of ... institutionalists and anti-reformers.”
One of the most pressing questions before the 2025 Congress will be whether or not they wish to continue down the path of increased state control Han Bianxi has led the country down, or to return “home” to the Kaifangxing after a period of abeyance, with each potential candidate reflecting a different pathway for the future of Nagumay. Ideological positions in Nagumay do not align neatly along a left-right spectrum, instead, loosely clustering around preferences for pro-market policies, "Marketism," versus state intervention in the economy, "Managism," and more versus less nationalistic sentiment. While stable over time, this clustering is much looser than the electoral cleavages found within competitive liberal democracies. As well, this dichotomy often fails to align along pro- or anti-regime positions.
A political pyramid, showcasing the ideological stances of the main contenders and of incumbent President Han Bianxi.
“There are three everyone knows: Wú, Biǎo and Yáng,” according to Nagumese Professor Míng Chángmíng, who himself has also been floated as a potential President, despite having been an unsuccessful candidate in 2021. These three main contenders, considered by some as the "prohibitive frontrunners," reflect the ongoing divides and tensions within Nagumese politics on where to go next.
As was the case in 2021, there is no clear favorite heading into this year’s election. We will be delving into the eleven contenders most likely to succeed Han Bianxi below.
The Top Tier
Wú Shíxiǎo: The Diplomat
Nagumay's foreign policy chief, serving as the Magistrate of State and Director-General of the Nagumese Diplomatic Corps, Wú brings to the table serious name recognition as one of the major figures representing Nagumay on the world stage. Born to a Nagumese father and Xifzi (Ethnic Aydinis within Nagumay) mother, his entire government career has been spent within the diplomatic service. The case for Wú is both simple and complicated. He serves as a top advisor to President Han Bianxi and has a firm following amongst Nagumese nationalists and militarists for his strong stance on Aria and Aydin. However, he has received strong criticism from a multitude of factions within the Party for his perceived closeness to the Commonwealth of Scalvia, a geopolitical ally of Nagumay, with hardliners such as Zhang Zuotan arguing he would "capitulate to Meridian whims."
But he remains relatively untested on matters of domestic policy. On economic issues, it is generally believed Wú would not considerably deviate from the Tianxia stance on promoting state enterprise and restraining the "excesses of trusts." His deep ties to military manufacturing and industry are likely to draw scrutiny from the Managist faction.
Biǎo Shan: Heiress to the Revolution
The Chief Minister of Niangkwang Municipality, Nagumay's largest city, she is more well-known for being the daughter of the late Marshall Biǎo Bēi, the 9th President of Nagumay who served as the nation's dictator from 1961 to 1989, having ushered in the Fùhuó Revolution, which was responsible for establishing Nagumay as it exists today. Should she be elected, she would become the first female President of Nagumay in history. Biǎo Shan has served as the Chief Minister of Niangkwang since 2021, having been appointed by Ouyang Kand. Prior to her appointment, she served as an elected member of the Niangkwang Municipal Council.
Her support for strengthening labor unions, harsher regulations on commerce and enterprise, a firm crackdown on the real estate market, and an even greater state presence in the economy places her at odds with the party’s more marketist wings while endearing her to those who want to expand upon Tianxia Economics. As well, she has been criticized for her whitewashing of atrocities perpetrated by her father's regime.
Looming over Biǎo Shan's prospective candicacy will be one simple question: Does the Fùhuó Party want to firmly shut the door on the Kaifanxing?
Yáng Zhémǎ: Minor Course Changer
As Supervising Chairman of the Nagumay Grand Convention and Prefect of the Commission on Administrative Law, Yáng has an impressive résumé of public service. Through his position as Supervising Chairman, Yáng has secured a heads-up over other contenders by virtue of being the man to jointly preside over the Nagumese National Congress alongside the Speaker of the National People’s Council. Widely the most visible of the top tier, he has amassed a robust political staff and has made frequent nationwide visits to various locations. Yáng's support is likely to come from the party’s center, as he positions himself as the candidate who can bridge the party’s Managist and Marketist wings.
A self-proclaimed "economic pragmatist," he will have to convince both business leaders and party figures that he has the gravitas to be president while fending off scrutiny from both of the party's major economic wings.
The Peripheral Contenders
Míng Chángmíng: An Old Reformer
Formerly having served as the Minister of Penyair from his appointment in 2010 by Fèng Jiangmi, to his dismissal in 2021 by Han Bianxi, Míng has since taken up a position at the Institute of Politics in Hsianglang People's University. The runner-up to Han Bianxi in the 2021 Presidential Election, he has been ambivalent about his intentions to pursue a second bid, even as some reformists believe he would be a more formidable candidate this time around.
However, his challenges are more considerable than simply not getting outmaneuvered by Han supporters at Prefectural and Provincial Conventions. After departing his Ministership and having been iced out of the upper echelons of power, he will no longer have the platform he enjoyed in his last race.
Guō Fùguì: The Communicator
Guō Fùguì has often been referred to as "Han's Mouth," due to his closeness and influence upon the incumbent President. Serving as the Special Envoy for the Nagumese Diaspora and Chairman of the Commission on Human Rights, he has become a vocal and prominent figure in both Nagumay and the globe, using his position to ably defend the Han Administration's reforms during sessions of the National People's Council, or during interviews with overseas media, knowing how and when to dial up the rhetoric.
But as his star has risen, he has also been subjected to increased scrutiny, which has revealed potential shortcomings, such as an incident which led to his removal as Director-General of the Office of International Repatriation, an agency that seeks to repatriate items of Nagumese cultural heritage auctioned or held by foreign entities.
Lìng Mìng-gŭng: Hatchetman
As Director-General, Lìng has headed the influential Office of Appointments, the office tasked with advising the President on political appointments, since 2021. In this capacity, Lìng has approved the appointment of over 7,000 people to positions in the Nagumese government since taking office in 2021. Alongside his position in the Office of Appointments, Lìng also serves as President of the Industrial Council, which advises the President on industrial and manufacturing policy.
As Guō Fùguì's candidacy faces major stumbles, many observers feel Lìng's prospects may be bolstered, as those who desire a Hanist "continuity candidate" not perceived as being too close to Scalvia may flock to him.
Wánagiri Shí: Meragese Marketist
While the former Chief Minister of Liling may have the most considerable political skills out of the leading Marketist candidates, ideological, regional, and ethnic questions all loom over his candidacy. Born in Panterak, if elected, Wánagiri would be the first President of Nagumay of Meragese ancestry, and the first to not have any Sinnitic ancestry.
He has been criticized for his financial ties to foreign businesses, many of which have carved out generous deals for themselves due to Liling's status as an Innovation Zone. And then there is the fiscal health of his own province: Liling's credit rating was been downgraded multiple times during his tenure as Chief Minister, in large part due to his oft-lambasted tax and spending reforms.
Zhang Zuotan: Fire-Eater
Zhang, a member of the National People's Council, is the closest thing among the main contenders to a fire-breathing ideologue. Notably, he was a leading anti-Fèngist figure during the 2020-21 Leadership Controversy and 2021 Nagumese Protests, calling then-President Fèng Bei a "Slimly little coward who should apply for Sainaamese citizenship." As well, some political observers credit Zhang's endorsement of Han Bianxi during the 2021 Election as being one of the main factors behind his upset win.
However, others cast doubt on the extent of his influence, highlighting how many of his other endorsements for office that cycle fell flat and failed to get elected. And despite his support for Han Bianxi, the current President has made sure to keep Zhang at arm's length throughout his tenure, in large part due to most party regulars viewing him as "reckless and irresponsible."
Still in Orbit
Bo Biyu:
Bo, the current Magistrate of both the Commissions of Justice and Development, has been an ally of President Han Bianxi ever since his endorsement of Han during the 2021 Nagumese National Congress. However, Bo has been the subject of several scandals while serving as Magistrate of Justice, and there doesn’t seem to be anyone within the party elite pushing for his promotion despite the occasional, off-handed mention of him as a potential President from Han.
Hong Shi:
The former President of the Natural Resources and Energy Council, Hong Shi was considered by many observers to have been the frontrunner for the Nagumese Presidency in 2021. However, she underran expectations massively and finished a distant third to Han Bianxi and Míng Chángmíng. A second bid by Hong would undoubtedly be hampered by the fact that she has not held any political office since 2019. Furthermore, the influence of the once-powerful Weihuzhe faction has all-but crumbled in the Han era, leaving her with few allies left.
Rui Baozhai:
The current Speaker of the National People’s Council, Rui will once again preside over the Nagumese National Congress, this time alongside Yáng Zhémǎ. A top contender in 2021, he finished fourth in the initial balloting before suspending his campaign and endorsing Míng Chángmíng. Rui has been reticent about his plans, and some close to him state he allegedly plans to retire from politics after the election concludes.
The Final Call
Others still nominally in contention include people like Councilors Dīng Bái and former Acting President Ouyang Kand. But the early chatter of the next President likely to be a more potent reformer willing to roll back Qualified System Democracy, now seems wrong today. This is why Jìng Sàdíyà, the former Director-General of the Office of Communications under Fèng Bei, and Chén Zhìjūn, the eclectic populist businessman often at odds with the regime, are no longer on the list.
Instead, most political observers believe the next President to emerge will not be someone seeking to return Nagumay back to the Spirit of 1991. Of course, due to the archaic and byzantine process behind electing a President, it's still anyone's guess as to who that person will be.